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Alternative Energy Revisited: Ethanol
Most of a year has passed since I first researched and wrote about possible investments in alternative energy companies (Alternative Energy Grows Up, 10/1/05). Recently I have been asked about investing in ethanol, which was not yet a hot topic last fall. Because this alternative fuel became so popular so fast, I was unable to find a quality company I could recommend that wasn’t already overpriced. Until today. But first I want to follow up on what has happened with my past recommendations.

Nearly all of the stocks I recommended last fall gained in stock price, but are now lower in price or trading at about the same price they were then, with the exception of Ormat Technologies. They ran up in price, because of oil prices rising so rapidly, which drove home the need to develop alternatives. Still, investors want to invest in profitable companies, and none of these small, alternative energy companies are in the black yet. Again, the exception is Ormat. And my new ethanol recommendation, Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (AVR).

An Ethanol Recommendation
Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (AVR, $24) produces and markets ethanol in the U.S., accounting for approximately 13.5% of our total ethanol volume. The company began trading publicly at $43 at the end of June, trending lower ever since. They are now attractively priced at 15 times their $1.62 earnings per share, slightly lower than the S&P 500’s 17 P/E. Earnings estimates for 2006 are $2.04/share and $2.44 for 2007. Their debt to equity ratio is reasonably low at .8.

Aventine’s second quarter revenue dramatically increased (132%), largely due to the increase in the price of ethanol to $2.41 per gallon, up from $1.38. They are investing capital in the construction of a 220-million gallon ethanol production facility in Indiana, and in Nebraska they have purchased 86 acres next to an existing facility, of which they are part owners, where they propose to build another 220-million gallon facility.

If ethanol continues its popularity as the favorite alternative, Aventine appears to be a solid investment choice.