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Demand Analysis
Ratio Comparison
| ACTUALS | 5 Year Averages | ||||||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Actual | Projection | |
| Valuation | |||||||
| P/E Ratio | 18.8 | 20.6 | 21.1 | 18.2 | 18.8 | 19.50 | 19.44 |
| Price to Sales | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.36 | 2.63 |
| Price to EBITDA | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 7.64 | 7.22 |
| Management Effectiveness | |||||||
| Return on Investment | 3.19 | 3.12 | 3.57 | 4.37 | 3.94 | 3.64 | 4.09 |
| Return on Equity | 17.66 | 13.90 | 14.23 | 17.37 | 17.50 | 16.13 | 15.36 |
| Financial Condition | |||||||
| Total Debt to Equity | 6.13 | 4.73 | 4.34 | 4.41 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 2.74 |
| Interest Coverage | 2.91 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.28 | 2.06 | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| Profitability | |||||||
| Gross Profit Margin | 61.84 | 54.01 | 54.84 | 54.64 | 58.09 | 56.68 | 57.44 |
| EBITDA Margin | 27.79 | 29.98 | 31.32 | 32.48 | 34.78 | 31.27 | 36.75 |
| Net Profit Margin | 11.18 | 12.78 | 11.29 | 12.75 | 12.63 | 12.13 | 13.73 |
| Dividend | |||||||
| Dividend Yield | 2.73 | 2.42 | 2.72 | 2.82 | 2.17 | 2.57 | 1.89 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.51 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| Growth | |||||||
| P/E/G | 0.86 | 2.09 | |||||
Earnings Projections
| General Electric Co. (GE) | |||||||
| Earnings Model ($MM) | |||||||
| 2007 | 2008E | 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | Forecast |
|
| Revenue | |||||||
| Infrastructure | 55,038 |
63,294 |
72,788 |
83,706 |
96,262 |
110,701 |
15.0% |
| Commercial Finance | 26,730 |
28,067 |
29,470 |
30,943 |
32,490 |
34,115 |
5.0% |
| GE Money | 24,648 |
25,880 |
27,174 |
28,533 |
29,960 |
31,458 |
5.0% |
| Healthcare | 26,730 |
28,868 |
31,178 |
33,672 |
36,366 |
39,275 |
8.0% |
| NBC Universal | 24,648 |
25,880 |
27,174 |
28,533 |
29,960 |
31,458 |
5.0% |
| Industrial | 16,064 |
17,028 |
18,050 |
19,132 |
20,280 |
21,497 |
6.0% |
| Other | 5,081 |
5,335 |
5,602 |
5,882 |
6,176 |
6,485 |
5.0% |
| Total Revenues | 166,696 |
194,352 |
211,436 |
230,402 |
251,494 |
274,989 |
10.5% |
| - Direct Operating Expenses | 69,867 |
78,251 |
87,641 |
98,158 |
109,937 |
123,130 |
12.0% |
| Gross Profit | 96,829 |
116,101 |
123,794 |
132,244 |
141,557 |
151,859 |
9.4% |
| Less Operating Expense | |||||||
| Investment & Insurance | 3,450 |
3,726 |
4,024 |
4,346 |
4,694 |
5,069 |
8.0% |
| Total Depreciation & Amort. | 9,909 |
10,801 |
11,773 |
12,833 |
13,988 |
15,247 |
9.0% |
| Other Costs & Expenses | 35,410 |
37,888 |
40,541 |
43,378 |
46,415 |
49,664 |
7.0% |
| Total Expenses & Items | 48,769 |
52,416 |
56,338 |
60,557 |
65,096 |
69,980 |
7.5% |
| EBIT | 48,060 |
63,686 |
67,457 |
71,687 |
76,461 |
81,880 |
11.2% |
| - Interest Expenses | 23,377 |
26,182 |
29,324 |
32,843 |
36,784 |
41,198 |
12.0% |
| Pretax Income | 24,683 |
37,503 |
38,132 |
38,844 |
39,677 |
40,681 |
10.5% |
| - Income Taxes | 3,941 |
6,376 |
6,483 |
6,992 |
7,142 |
7,729 |
|
| Discontinued & Accounting | 318 |
(500) |
(500) |
(500) |
(500) |
(500) |
|
| Net Income | 21,060 | 30,628 | 31,150 | 31,352 | 32,035 | 32,452 | 9.0% |
| Tax Rate | 16.0% | 17.0% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 19% | |
| Dividends Paid | 8,593 |
9,453 |
10,398 |
11,438 |
12,581 |
13,839 |
10.0% |
| EBITDA | 58,287 |
73,987 |
78,730 |
84,020 |
89,949 |
96,626 |
10.6% |
| Shares outstanding (000,000's) | 10,230 |
10,230 |
10,230 |
10,230 |
10,230 |
10,230 |
0.0% |
| Diluted Shares outstanding | 10,266 |
10,266 |
10,266 |
10,266 |
10,266 |
10,266 |
0.0% |
| Earnings Per Share | |||||||
| Basic | $2.06 | $2.99 | $3.04 | $3.06 | $3.13 | $3.17 | 9.0% |
| Diluted | $2.05 | $2.98 | $3.03 | $3.05 | $3.12 | $3.16 | 9.0% |
| Source: estimates | |||||||
Earnings History
| General Electric Co. (GE) | ||||||||
| Annual Income Statements ($MM) | ||||||||
| 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | I Yr. | 5 Yr. | |
| Revenue | ||||||||
| Infrastructure | 55,038 |
47,429 |
41,803 |
37,373 |
31,708 |
36,381 |
16.0% | 8.6% |
| Commercial Finance | 26,730 |
23,792 |
20,646 |
19,524 |
18,869 |
17,781 |
12.3% | 8.5% |
| GE Money | 24,648 |
21,759 |
19,416 |
15,734 |
12,845 |
10,266 |
13.3% | 12.7% |
| Healthcare | 16,064 |
16,562 |
15,153 |
13,456 |
10,198 |
8,955 |
-3.0% | 12.4% |
| NBC Universal | 14,621 |
16,188 |
14,689 |
12,886 |
6,871 |
7,149 |
-9.7% | 15.4% |
| Industrial | 24,514 |
33,494 |
32,631 |
30,722 |
29,756 |
28,314 |
-26.8% | -2.8% |
| Other | 5,081 |
4,167 |
3,618 |
4,596 |
23,940 |
23,364 |
21.9% | -26.3% |
| Total Revenues | 166,696 |
163,391 |
147,956 |
134,291 |
134,187 |
132,210 |
2.0% | 4.7% |
| - COGS | 69,867 |
74,110 |
66,814 |
61,759 |
51,206 |
52,856 |
-5.7% | 5.7% |
| Gross Profit | 96,829 |
89,281 |
81,142 |
72,532 |
82,981 |
79,354 |
8.5% | 4.1% |
| Less Expenses & Items | ||||||||
| Investment & Insurance | 3,450 |
3,214 |
3,374 |
3,086 |
16,369 |
17,608 |
7.3% | -27.8% |
| Total Depreciation & Amort. | 9,909 |
9,158 |
8,537 |
8,348 |
6,956 |
6,511 |
8.2% | 8.8% |
| Other Costs & Expenses | 35,410 |
33,003 |
31,433 |
29,185 |
29,320 |
32,639 |
7.3% | 1.6% |
| Total Expenses & Items | 48,769 |
45,375 |
43,344 |
40,619 |
52,645 |
56,758 |
7.5% | -3.0% |
| EBIT | 48,060 |
43,906 |
37,798 |
31,913 |
30,336 |
22,596 |
9.5% | 16.3% |
| - Interest Expenses | 23,377 |
19,286 |
15,102 |
11,616 |
10,432 |
10,216 |
21.2% | 18.0% |
| Pretax Income | 24,683 |
24,620 |
22,696 |
20,297 |
19,904 |
12,380 |
0.3% | 14.8% |
| - Income Taxes | 3,941 |
3,954 |
4,035 |
3,696 |
4,315 |
3,758 |
-0.3% | 1.0% |
| Discontinued & Accounting | 318 |
163 |
(1,950) |
559 |
(587) |
(1,015) |
95.1% | -179.3% |
| Net Income | 21,060 |
20,829 |
16,711 |
17,160 |
15,002 |
7,607 |
1.1% | 22.6% |
| Tax Rate | 16.0% | 16.1% | 17.8% | 18.2% | 21.7% | 30.4% | -0.6% | -12.1% |
| Dividends Paid | 8,593 |
10,670 |
9,619 |
8,528 |
7,714 |
7,261 |
-19.5% | 3.4% |
| EBITDA | 58,287 |
53,227 |
44,385 |
40,820 |
36,705 |
28,092 |
9.5% | 15.7% |
| Shares outstanding (000,000's) | 10,230 |
10,359 |
10,570 |
10,400 |
10,019 |
9,947 |
-1.2% | 0.6% |
| Diluted Shares outstanding | 10,266 |
10,394 |
10,611 |
10,445 |
10,075 |
10,028 |
-1.2% | 0.5% |
| Earnings Per Share | ||||||||
| Basic | $2.06 | $2.01 | $1.58 | $1.65 | $1.50 | $0.76 | 2.4% | 21.9% |
| Diluted | $2.05 | $2.00 | $1.57 | $1.64 | $1.49 | $0.76 | 2.4% | 22.0% |
| Source: General Electric Co. Annual Reports & SEC Filings | ||||||||
| GENERAL ELECTRIC | NYSE: | GE |
| Conglomerates | TARGET: | $54.76 |
| Stock Data | Sales & Earnings | 2007A | 2008E | 2009E | ||
| Price 11/19/2007 | $38.65 | Revenue (MM) | $166.7 | $194.4 | $211.4 | |
| 52-Week Range | 33.90 - 42.15 | EBITDA (MM) | $58.3 | $74.0 | $78.7 | |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% | EPS (diluted) | $2.05 | $2.98 | $3.03 | |
| Capitalization | Value Measures | |||||
| Shares Outstanding (MM) | 10,230.00 | Price/Earnings | 18.84 | 15.42 | 18.05 | |
| Market Capitalization (MM) | $395.4 | Price/Sales | 2.38 | 2.43 | 2.68 | |
| Debt/Equity | 4.94 | Price/Book | 3.30 | |||
| Projections | Growth (5 Yr.) | Historical | Projected | |||
| 12-Month Price Target | $46.01 | Earnings | 22.0% | 9.0% | ||
| 24-Month Price Target | $54.76 | P/E/G | 0.86 | 2.09 | ||
| Annual Total Return | 21.2% | |||||
KEY AREAS FOR GROWTH