NEGATIVE ON MUTUAL FUNDS
While I am optimistic about a return to growth in the
stock market, as the economy recovers, I believe that growth will come selectively.
The (successful) end of the war will boost consumer confidence, which should
be good for the market. The first quarter earnings season, currently underway,
may temper some of that enthusiasm, as there will certainly be some disappointing
earnings reports. However, most estimates are for a 3-5% profit growth for
the quarter, which, while not outstanding, is still growth. And GDP for
2002 rose 2.4%, indicating a sluggish but growing economy.
Since most mutual funds own very large portfolios, and they usually have
to invest according to a somewhat restrictive objective, such as large growth
stocks, foreign stocks, or a balance of stocks and bonds, they cannot be
nimble or selective enough to really benefit from the relatively small pockets
of growth I expect in the market.
Diversification is still
key to reducing risk. But owning every S&P 500 stock can be an anchor
in a slow-growth market. Identifying and owning sectors that are poised
to benefit from current economic or political situations can provide both
diversification and growth. An industry sector can be purchased in the form
of an exchange traded fund (ETF), a basket of securities (usually a dozen
or two) from one sector. Likewise, exposure to that sector can be reduced
or eliminated in one transaction like selling a stock—with a commission,
but with no deferred or redemption fee, which many mutual funds have. You
can even build a portfolio of stocks using ETFs, rebalancing among sectors
as market conditions warrant.
Linda Stewart for www.fizone.com
April 2003