NEGATIVE ON MUTUAL FUNDS
While I am optimistic about a return to growth in the stock market, as the economy recovers, I believe that growth will come selectively. The (successful) end of the war will boost consumer confidence, which should be good for the market. The first quarter earnings season, currently underway, may temper some of that enthusiasm, as there will certainly be some disappointing earnings reports. However, most estimates are for a 3-5% profit growth for the quarter, which, while not outstanding, is still growth. And GDP for 2002 rose 2.4%, indicating a sluggish but growing economy.

Since most mutual funds own very large portfolios, and they usually have to invest according to a somewhat restrictive objective, such as large growth stocks, foreign stocks, or a balance of stocks and bonds, they cannot be nimble or selective enough to really benefit from the relatively small pockets of growth I expect in the market.

Diversification is still key to reducing risk. But owning every S&P 500 stock can be an anchor in a slow-growth market. Identifying and owning sectors that are poised to benefit from current economic or political situations can provide both diversification and growth. An industry sector can be purchased in the form of an exchange traded fund (ETF), a basket of securities (usually a dozen or two) from one sector. Likewise, exposure to that sector can be reduced or eliminated in one transaction like selling a stock—with a commission, but with no deferred or redemption fee, which many mutual funds have. You can even build a portfolio of stocks using ETFs, rebalancing among sectors as market conditions warrant.